The South China Sea May Be Coming to a Boil, so to Speak

It looks like there is growing awareness of the problems China’s aggressive stance in the South China Sea may present.

Here are some recent articles on the subject:

The Sydney Morning Herald says that China is installing weaponry on the artificial islands it has

been building in the disputed zones.

Australian officials are concerned that China could also introduce long-range radar, anti-aircraft guns and regular surveillance flights that will enable it to project military power across a maritime expanse which include some of Australia’s busiest trading lanes.

Here’s another article that I’m including mostly because the map shows the incredible extent of the area China is claiming.

And finally, an argument that China sees a window of opportunity in the remainder of Obama’s term.

Eighteen months. That’s the timeframe Beijing has to test how much territory it can claim in disputed Asian waters, before a more uncompromising United States commander in chief takes over from a perceived militarily-passive President Barack Obama.
“The Chinese calculation is ‘run hard now’,” says Ernest Bower, a senior adviser for south-east Asia at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Lee Kuan Yew v. Ferdinand Marcos

Lee Kuan Yew, the leader of Singapore from the time of its founding in 1965 (upon its separation from Malaysia) until 1990, has died. Singapore was a poor city-state with no natural resources in 1965 and Lee pursued policies that, amazingly quickly, made it one of the richest nations on earth on a per-capita basis (in 1965, Singapore's per-capita GDP was $500; fifty years later, it is $55,000).

Not all Lee's policies were what an advocate of democracy might wish. As an article about him in Foreign Policy notes:

... the miracle wasn’t without its price. Lee kept his political project on a tight leash, dampening free speech, muzzling his critics, and squashing political opposition before it could take root. [...] 

In polite company, it’s generally preferred to refer to Lee as a “soft” authoritarian — although it doesn’t feel that soft butting heads with a man who leaves you destitute, imprisoned, or beaten with a cane.

Lee didn't dispute the above. In an interview five years ago he was asked how he would be remembered. He replied:

I’m not saying that everything I did was right, but everything I did was for an honorable purpose. I had to do some nasty things, locking fellows up without trial ... Close the coffin, then decide.”

In my experiences with the Philippines, I've often reflected on Lee and Ferdinand Marcos, the Philippine leader who was almost an exact contemporary (Marcos ruled from 1965 to 1986). Both were Asian dictators who took over impoverished former colonies at the same time.

What I have wondered, as you may have guessed, is what would have become of the Philippines if it had had a leader like Lee Kuan Yew. Would it have prospered? That we cannot know, but we do know what happened under Marcos:

GDP per capita
1965: $187
1986: $535
2013: $2765

To compare the two countries -- in 1965, Singapore had a GDP per capita less than 3x that of the Philippines. Today it is close to 20x. But blaming Marcos may be misguided; as the numbers indicate, the country has done about the same in the post-Marcos years as it did during his reign.

Still, it is interesting to think about whether the country might actually prosper under honest and visionary leadership (however undemocratic). It seems unlikely, though, that the Philippines will ever get such leaders, since the people seem to be addicted to electing the same elite families, plus an occasional movie star or two.

Earthquakes and Volcanoes

I started thinking about these dangers because of chatter among Ecuadorian expats following yesterday's earthquake in Quito.

People get really worked up over the danger of volcanoes, but most seem to take earthquakes at least somewhat more in stride. I think this might be because we (meaning Americans and Europeans) see volcanoes as an 'exotic' thing; we have few volcanoes, but earthquakes, while frightening, are at least somewhat familiar.

Since Ecuador and my previous place of residence, the Philippines, are both part of the 'Ring of Fire', I have lived in some proximity to volcanoes (thankfully, peaceful ones); and any place that has volcanoes also is prone to earthquakes.

I find earthquakes much more frightening, since volcanoes are reasonably predictable and give plenty of warning before major eruptions.

Our Lady of Perpetual Mispronunciation

I recently had a minor medical process done at a clinic connected to a hospital near my home – Perpetual Succor.

I was struck by the use of the word ‘Succor’ – there are many Catholic institutions in the US with basically the same name, but it is always, in my experience, expressed as Perpetual Help (generally some variant of ‘Our Lady of Perpetual Help’).

But that was not the only linguistic oddity, from my viewpoint. The strangest thing for me is the pronunciation of perpetual, because the Filipinos have the strange idea that it should be pronounced as it is spelled.

I (and most Americans I know) generally pronounce the word as three (or maybe three and a half) syllables, with a ‘ch’ sound thrown in. We say per-pet-ch’-wal (sometimes running the last two sounds together: per-pet-chwal).

I was very confused when my doctor told me where the clinic was – he pronounced the word with four quite distinct syllables: per-pet-oo-al. I generally don’t get much into right/wrong arguments over different countries’ pronunciation of English – I’ll leave that to the Brits. But I have to admit that the Filipinos have a strong case that they have this one right.

School Shut Down Because Students Were Possessed by Demons

From today's local news:

At least 20 high school students of the Quiot Integrated School in Sitio Bogo, Barangay Quiot, Cebu City were believed to have been possessed by evil spirits yesterday, prompting teachers to immediately suspend classes. 

The affected students reportedly started shouting inside the classroom, then “their voices changed and they went wild.” 

The possession reportedly started yesterday morning, affecting at least 10 students. This was, however, controlled by the teachers, led by a teacher catechist, who immediately prayed.

Putting aside the whole issue of possession, I wonder what would happen to a teacher in the US who tried to quiet disruptive students by praying.

Quiot Barangay Captain Vicente Ramos Jr. told The FREEMAN that it was around 2:00 pm when the possession started again, this time affecting at least 20 students from first year to third year. 

The teachers again started praying, together with Lupon Tagapamayapa member Victor Lunday, who is a lay minister. 

Ramos said some students regained consciousness while three others were taken to Msgr. Fred Kriekenbeek at the Mary’s Little Children Community in Barangay Tabunok, Talisay City. 

Kriekenbeek is the official exorcist of the Archdiocese of Cebu and is also the founder and father moderator of Mary’s Little Children Community.

Luckily the right guy was on the scene. It turns out, though, that there have been multiple outbreaks of possession at the school.

Ramos narrated that issues on possession started last Friday during the three-days and two-nights Boy Scouts of the Philippines (BSP) camping at the school compound. [ ... ]

Ramos said that school officials are now planning to have the school blessed again. It was blessed six years ago during its official opening.

Once again, I dare somebody to get up at their next school board meeting and suggest getting the school blessed.

On another point, I learned from this that blessings expire. I wonder if six years is the normal lifespan of a school-blessing.

The article closes with some helpful advice:

Victims of possession should also abandon demonic items and evil practices so as not to be taken in control again.

Thinking back to my behavior at that age, and that of my classmates, I find it difficult to see how anyone could discern when we were possessed and when we were just being teenaged boys.

Latest Zamboanga Warning from the US Embassy

Not that anyone should need this warning, but as a pro forma, here it is anyway:

Emergency Message to U.S. Citizens

U.S. Embassy, Manila, Philippines

September 9, 2013

 

THE EMBASSY OF THE UNITED STATES IS TRANSMITTING THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION AS A PUBLIC SERVICE TO U.S. CITIZENS IN THE PHILIPPINES.  PLEASE DISSEMINATE THIS MESSAGE TO ALL U.S. CITIZENS IN YOUR ORGANIZATION OR NEIGHBORHOOD.  THANK YOU.

 

Violence Near Zamboanga City, Mindanao

The U.S. Embassy in Manila advises U.S. citizens against any travel to the Zamboanga region due to ongoing clashes between Philippine security forces and armed insurgents of the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF).   MNLF insurgents have been engaged in battle with Philippine security forces in Barangays Rio Hondo, Sta. Barbara, Sta. Catalina, Tetuan, Talon-Talon, and Mariki in Zamboanga City since early morning, September 9, 2013.  The Zamboanga City airport is currently closed. We have no information at this time whether the clashes will expand to neighboring areas, nor how long they may continue.

The Embassy has heard no reports of violence in neighboring Basilan province, but urges U.S. citizens to exercise caution and remain vigilant regarding their personal security situation.

 

U.S. citizens in the Zamboanga City area should shelter in place to avoid becoming involved in the fighting or should follow any instructions from local authorities regarding evacuation.

 

The Embassy urges all U.S. citizens to postpone any travel to the Zamboanga peninsula area at this time. The Embassy strongly reiterates its recommendation that U.S. citizens exercise extreme caution when travelling to Mindanao and to keep personal safety and security in mind during any stay in Mindanao. 

More Trouble in Zamboanga

The US Embassy in Manila has posted a couple warnings recently about the danger of traveling to Zamboanga and other places in Mindanao, the most recent being in July, which I reposted here.

Zamboanga is ... er, different from anyplace else I've ever visited. I was there in April for a niece's wedding. As I've mentioned before, when I arrived, she told me that I was forbidden to leave my hotel without an escort; the concern being that white folks there have a tendency to get kidnapped. I (mostly) did as I was told, not wanting to cause any anxiety.

A lot of expats here laugh at Embassy warnings (Australia has issued some lately, as well), on the grounds that they're just a bunch of butt-covering bureaucrats. That characterization may well be true, but it looks today like the warnings may, in this case at least, have some validity.

Zambo is currently under attack from a group of Muslim extremists. At present the city is pretty much in lockdown mode, with an overnight curfew and with schools, government offices and most businesses closed again tomorrow.

As of Monday afternoon, six people have been reported killed and 24 wounded. Some 300 civilians were also held hostage by the rebel group.

I'm praying for the well-being of the people of Zamboanga, especially of course my family.

A map of Zamboanga City's center shows where hostages are being held by MNLF rebels in Bgy. Santa Catalina (middle icon), just four city blocks from city hall, where the rebels are purportedly intending to march their hostages as human shields so they can raise their flag. In their way are heavily armed troops and law enforcers facing a huge dilemma – will they confront the rebels and risk a massacre of hostages or allow the MNLF to reach city hall, signifying a victory for the Misuari-led guerrillas? The icon on the right marks the site of a firefight in the early hours of Monday in coastal Rio Hondo within the Zamboanga City boundary. That battle caused the death of at least one soldier, a member of the Navy's Special Operations Group.

Ferries

There was a collision of two ships just off Cebu last night, with one of them, a passenger ferry, sinking. About twenty people are known to be dead thus far, but at least a couple hundred more are missing.

Rescuers in helicopters and boats are desperately searching for nearly 300 people missing after a ferry sank in the Philippines, with at least 24 already confirmed killed. 

The Thomas Aquinas ferry was carrying 870 passengers and crew when it collided with a cargo ship on Friday night in calm waters near the port of Cebu, the Philippines' second biggest city, authorities said. 

While 572 people had been rescued by Saturday morning, 24 bodies had been retrieved and 274 were still unaccounted for, said Rear Admiral Luis Tuason, vice commandant of the Philippine coastguard. 

The accident occurred in the mouth of a narrow strait leading into the port between two and three kilometres from shore, authorities said.

Prayers would be a good idea.

I enjoy riding the ferries here. They’re slower than planes, obviously, but I’m not in a big hurry and have traveled several times by ferry between Cebu and Manila. The company I use is the same as the one that sank, and I’ve found them to be good.

Ferries are one of the main modes of transport across the archipelago of more than 7,100 islands, particularly for the millions of people too poor to fly. 

But sea accidents are common, with poor safety standards, lax enforcement and overloading typically to blame. 

The world's deadliest peacetime maritime disaster occurred near the capital, Manila, in 1987 when a ferry laden with Christmas holidaymakers collided with a small oil tanker, killing more than 4,300 people. 

In 2008, a huge ferry capsized during a typhoon off the central island of Sibuyan, leaving almost 800 dead.

Having said I like the ferry company I’ve used, the company that operates the cargo ship involved in this collision, Sulpicio Lines, is another matter entirely.* Those two disasters mentioned in the preceding paragraph were both Sulpicio ships. The Dona Paz, which went down in 1987, was carrying more than four thousand people although the passenger manifest reportedly only showed fifteen hundred.

But nothing was done about it.

* To be fair, no one yet knows who is at fault in this instance.

The Philippine Drivers' Test

I would never advocate cheating, of course, but I thought I would pass on to my friends the following document, which came into my possession by means I can't divulge. It is the written portion of the Philippine driving test (the behind-the-wheel portion consists of driving home -- if you made it there alive, you passed).

The answers are marked in red, though this is just for information purposes. If you are taking the test, please do not use these answers, since that would be cheating.

Department of Transportation and Communications
Republic of the Philippines

Official Drivers' Test - 2013

1. Which side of the center line should you drive on?

• The left
• The right
• What center line?

2. What is the purpose of a sidewalk?

• A place for pedestrians to walk
• A place for motorcycles to drive
• A place for cars to park
• Whatever you damn well want to do with it

3. What should you do when pulling into a continuous stream of traffic?

• Wait for an opening, then proceed with care
• Close eyes and go, while honking horn

4. When a cop stops you, you should:

• Pull off the road at a safe spot
• Argue with him
• Ask if two hundred pesos is enough (unless you're a Kano, in which case, ask if a thousand is enough)

5. When approaching a cross street where you intend to turn, you should:

• Use turn signals
• Use hand signals
• Do whatever you damn well please

6. When turning, you should:

• Check to make sure there are no pedestrians
• Stop if there are pedestrians
• Honk horn if there are pedestrians

7. When should you stop at a red light?

• Always
• If there’s a lot of traffic coming from the side streets
• If the car in front of you has stopped, unless you can go around him

8. If two vehicles approach an intersection simultaneously, which has the right of way?

• The driver approaching from the left
• The driver approaching from the right
• The driver who’s more of a real man

9. If your horn and your brakes both go out, you should:

• Get them repaired immediately
• Get the brakes fixed
• Get horn fixed, wait until next payday (maybe) for the brakes 

10. How often should you check to see that your horn is working?

• Before starting out
• At every intersection
• Whenever you see a pretty girl
• At blind curves
• Before running a red light
• All of the above

11. At sundown you should:

• Turn on headlights to see better
• Leave headlights off to conserve gas
• Do as you damn well please

12. The purpose of the rearview mirror is:

• To help you see when it’s safe to change lanes
• To hang your rosary beads so it will always be safe to change lanes

13. What is the appropriate speed to drive?

• The speed limit posted on road signs
• The appropriate speed for road conditions, but no more than posted
• How fast can your car go?

14. When a jeepney stops in front of you to pick up passengers, you should:

• Stop, check traffic, then pass on the left
• Stop, check traffic, then pass on the right
• Honk, then do whatever you damn well please

Underage Prostitutes

In certain sections of Cebu City, where I live at present, it's almost impossible for a foreigner to walk any significant distance without getting at least a few offers of sex -- the Colon district, Mango Avenue, sometimes Fuente, and Juana Osmena come to mind. Generally, when I get such offers, I just pass by, but occasionally, out of curiosity, I will stop and ask a question -- most often, "How old are you?" when the girl seems unusually young.

The problem is, though, that there's no reason to believe the answers. If she says eighteen, is she really sixteen, but lying because she thinks I want a 'legal' girl? If she says sixteen, is she really eighteen, but thinks maybe my asking means I'm into 'young stuff'? In any case, the odds are that the answer is whatever she thinks a potential customer wants to hear.

Recently I was walking through Colon and passed a small group of hookers. One called out to me and pointed to a young girl sitting next to her. I asked the girl how old she was, and she answered that she was fifteen. I said something like, "Too young" and walked away. The older hooker said, "How old you want?"

I continued walking, but later I started thinking that maybe I should have answered "Twelve" to see what reaction I'd get. Of course, that's the sort of joke that could get me into a lot of trouble, so it's probably best I just left.

Headline Writer Hits the Trifecta

When I saw this headline, I thought of a recent discussion on a Philippine expat forum about how much some words get overused. The discussion included comments about how everything involving paid sex gets called 'trafficking' now.

And of course, we know that the hookers are always 'rescued', though I think this is just a local phrase. Does 'rescuing' happen everywhere now? I don't recall that word being used in the US -- there the hookers are 'arrested'.

Anyway, I thought this writer was doing great by working both those words in; and then I noticed that he had also managed to include the magic word for stories of this type: 'foreigners'.

8 women rescued from suspected trafficker catering to foreigners

Give that guy a raise!

I Have a Cold (Again)

I don't get a lot of colds -- usually one, occasionally two a year, and they typically last a few days. This is I think my fourth or fifth in just over a year of being here, and the last one lasted a month.

Which leads me to suspect that it's some type of allergy (which I also have never before had much trouble with) rather than colds. Most likely it has to do with the pollution, though it's possible, I suppose, that I'm allergic to corruption and inefficiency.

In any case, I have the usual stuffy/runny nose, coughing/sneezing, etc. And I am reminded of my first cold here.

I went to a pharmacy to get some cold medicine. I looked at the shelves, though I knew I wouldn't find anything there, then went to the counter and asked the young lady (I wonder if they have an age limit on these jobs? They're all young) for help. She asked me what kind I wanted, and I said I had no idea. She handed me a set of twenty tablets in punch-out packaging, of the type you would find inside a box of Benadryl or Contac in the US. She asked me how many I wanted.

I was at a loss -- I had assumed I'd buy a box of them and take however many the directions on/in the box advised. There being no box, there were no directions.

So I asked her how many I should take. She said, "I think probably two a day." She looked over at the other young lady, who said, "Three." So she said, "Every three hours." Then the other girl said, "No, three times a day."

That's what I did, since it seemed fairly reasonable, but I didn't have great confidence in their advice. I survived, though, so it must have been about right.

She said they were 4.5 pesos each, and I told her I wanted ten (I figured three days, plus a spare). So she took out scissors and cut the strip of twenty in half.

I Was Attacked by a Pack of Ten Year Old Girls

One evening about a year ago, shortly after I arrived in Cebu, I was walking on Mango Avenue past the ‘bikini bars’ of Mango Square. There were, as usual, a number of hookers (some female, some not) in the parking lots and sidewalks in front of the bars. One of the ladyboys said something along the lines of “Don’t go there” as I passed. I thought it was a proposition, so I continued on.

About fifty meters or so further, I was approached by a group of four or five girls about ten or so years old. I paid them no mind until they were next to me, at which point they all began grabbing at me.

I was, as you might expect, taken by surprise and not at all certain what in the hell was going on. I probably should have decked a couple of them, but we are inculturated that adult males don’t punch out little girls (and I’m not sure what the legal consequences might have been). What was happening, as you may have guessed, is that a couple of them were trying to get into my pockets as the others kept me occupied. I managed to twist away and get out into the street – luckily there was a break in the usual heavy traffic on Mango. The girls laughed and ran off.

I was reminded of this incident by this news report of a Korean who was robbed in the same area by five boys, said to be twelve years old.

Police Officer 2 Cliffton Manogura said several children engage in snatching, relying on the fact that authorities will not arrest them for being minors.

This is in line with what I was told when, after The Attack of the Ten Year Old Girls, I wandered back toward the clubs, where the ladyboy, who had apparently been watching, said, “I tried to warn you.” I acknowledged that fact and thanked her, and she volunteered the information that young kids frequently attack pedestrians in that area (especially foreigners, who are presumed to have lots of cash on them), because they know they won’t be arrested.

Under Philippine law, it turns out, minors who commit crimes are supposed to be (as in most countries) dealt with by juvenile courts if they are over fifteen. I’m not sure how that works out.

But, if they are under fifteen then they are generally just returned to their parents, if the parents can be found. But quite often, if there are parents, then the parents are the ones who sent the kids out to steal. So the reality of the situation is that any kids who are caught are quickly released (and few are caught because the police make little effort to do so, recognizing the futility).

Philippine Nurses

The Philippines just got sixteen thousand more nurses. That’s how many passed the recent licensing exams, out of almost 38,000 who took the test.

A few observations, based on this article:

That’s a horrible success rate. It would be nice to think that the reason fewer than half pass is because the tests are so tough and the standards so high. Unfortunately, it is more likely due to the wretched quality of Philippine higher education – most colleges here are diploma mills, with the largest ones owned by the country’s richest families and thus (just like Cebu Pacific Airlines) not subject to any meaningful regulation or oversight.

As the article notes, the job prospects for these graduates are grim, and the pay is not all that great if they get a job. On an expat forum I frequent (where I came across this article), one of the other expats said that his step-daughter’s nursing degree cost him P600,000 (about $15,000). While that’s cheap by American standards, it’s a hell of a lot here. And the step-daughter’s salary five years after graduation? P14,000/month (about $350). He considers that a pretty poor ROI (and I agree).

Look at those nurse:patient ratios:

Citing official data, Dakis said the ratio stands at 1:25 for the Philippine General Hospital. Hospitals in other areas have more dismal figures, such as 1:45 in Davao del Sur.

Holy cow! The ratio should be around 1:4. No wonder most Philippine families do their own nursing when a family member is in the hospital.

But don't worry -- they’re going to pass a law.

Dakis however said the ratio is among the key issues that will be addressed by amendments to the Nursing Law, which he believes will be filed anew in the 16th Congress.

That’ll fix it.

The Filipino Reaction to Criticism

I've noticed that Filipinos, when faced with any form of criticism, whether it is something like a complaint to the manager of a restaurant about poor food or service, or something about their country, such as crime, corruption, crappy infrastructure, or whatever, will respond in one or more of three ways:

• Deny that there's a problem ("The food is excellent, sir, you're the only one to complain")
• Use the equivalence argument ("It happens in your country, too")
• Shift the blame ("It's all the fault of the US")

What they don't do is fix the problem. But then, why should they, if there is no problem and it's somebody else's fault?

Philippine Fail Blog

I came across this blog today, and think you might enjoy it. It's written by an American-born Filipino who has come here to live and work (apparently, he runs a business). He is quite frustrated, to say the least, and says he blogs to let off steam:

After the culture shock adjustment, I’ve decided to remain here and continue with business despite the frustrations. I’m not unhappy here at all. And this blog helps me vent the frustrations I deal with daily in this country. 

The purpose of this blog is partially for my own personal therapy and venting my frustrations. Many of the comments by readers completely agree and identify with my posts. This blog is just one of many which express the same frustrations and opinions. 

I really don’t believe this blog will help native Filipinos. I have come to the conclusion they are helpless because on the most part, they are completely shut down and closed off to real progress or change. On the same note, I am certain it won’t hurt them any more or less than they hurt themselves every day with their crab mentality, hypocrisy, and senseless thirst for revenge against each other for even petty little bullshit things. 

They do not listen or care about criticism of any kind. So this blog is not necessarily here for the native Filipino.This blog is primarily here for ME and those from outside of Philippines who must live here or stay here long term and are as frustrated and as mind-boggled as I am about the level of idiocy, stupidity, and absence of logic and reason in Philippines. 

It is therapeutic to release the anger and frustrations of having to live here. This blog also serves as informative to foreigners looking to come here. They need to know what they’re getting themselves into, and what to expect in order to make an informed decision. Foreigners be warned. What you will experience here will shock and confuse you! 

Language warning: Don't go there if a bit of raw language will offend you. The guy is letting off steam.

Let’s Trade: Mindanao for Greenland

Here’s an interesting tidbit for those who, like me, enjoy doing what-ifs about history. I just learned that Denmark apparently made an offer to the US in 1913 to trade Greenland to us for Mindanao.

Here’s the story as reported in The New York Times on 29 November 1913:

DANISH PROPOSAL TO 'SWAP' TERRITORY

Plan to Give Greenland to This Country in Return for the Island of Mindanao.

THEN DEAL WITH GERMANY

Empire, It Is Thought, Might Accept One of Philippine Group in Exchange for Schleswig Province.

BERLIN, Nov. 28.—From quarters sufficiently authoritative to withstand the inevitable "official denial," news has just reached THE NEW YORK TIMES correspondent of an interesting political project which, if carried out, would simultaneously alter the maps of Europe, America, and Asia. It concerns a three-cornered exchange of territory between Germany, Denmark, and the United States.

The most important phase of the proposed "deal" concerns Germany's cession of part of Schleswig-Holstein to its former Danish owners. The transfer, as planned by the distinguished and influential Danes who evolved and formally submitted the scheme to the United States Government, would take place in the following ingenious way.

The United States, in return for Greenland, would give Denmark the Island of Mindanao, one of the most important of the Philippine group. Greenland, it is represented by the Danes, is capable of becoming "a second Alaska."

The arrangement would simultaneously confer Denmark's right to transfer Mindanao to Germany in return for Schleswig, which includes the Danish provinces conquered by Prussia and Austria in 1864.

My information is not clear on this particular point, but evidently the Danish promoters of the transaction have canvassed the situation sufficiently to think that Germany might regard an extensive foothold in the Philippine Islands as a quid pro quo for the surrender of the Danish sections of Schleswig-Holstein.

Germany might welcome a larger place in the Far Eastern sun than her present base at Kiau-chow, but it is a grave question if she would regard Mindanao as adequate compensation for a territory bought, like Alsace-Lorraine, with German lives.

As an aside, Kiau-chow, mentioned in the last paragraph, is today known as Jiaozhou, and is the location of the Tsingtao brewery – the source of China’s best (or at least best-known) beer. The Germans, as you might guess, founded the brewery.

So what might have been the outcome if this deal had gone through?

I can imagine the Danes, looking back later, being really angry, because they were given most or all of the land they wanted in Schleswig at the end of World War One. They might reasonably have said then, “Damn, if we had just waited five years, we’d have Schleswig and still have Greenland, too!”

Germany was forced to give up all its colonies as a result of the Treaty of Versailles, so Mindanao probably would have been given back to the US. Which would mean the US made out like bandits, getting Greenland pretty much for free.

What would have happened to Greenland under US rule? It would probably have a naval base or two today. There is an air base at Thule, and there were others in the past. During World War Two, the US took over Greenland (with the assent of the Danish government-in-exile), and if my memory is correct (I can’t find anything on-line to confirm it) used it as a base for protecting convoys in the North Atlantic.

There was a second shot at this, by the way, since the US offered to buy Greenland for $100 million in 1946, but Denmark turned us down.

Probably Greenland would have been developed a bit more by the US, but thus far (as far as I know) there’s no evidence of great natural resources, so probably things would still be rather basic there. Mostly the people fish.

The most likely outcomes for Greenland politically (in descending order of likelihood) would seem to be:

• A US possession/territory – with some degree of self-government, similar to Guam or the Virgin Islands
• A US commonwealth – similar to Puerto Rico
• Independence – presumably the US would give Greenland full independence if the people wanted it, as it has been offered to Puerto Rico.. The question would be, with a population of only 56,000 people, if it is capable of sustaining itself independently (today about half the budget comes from Danish government handouts)
• Statehood for such a small population would be pretty much out of the question, I think

But what about Mindanao? That could be a lot more complicated, depending on who grabbed it during and/or after WW1. My guess above was the US, as the possessor of the rest of the Philippines, and as the former owner up to just a few years previous.

But what if, at the start of the war, the British, based in the nearby Malay States, had taken possession of the island? The US, as a neutral at that point, would have found it legally difficult to act against a German colony, but Britain could do so, and likely would. At the end of the war, they would probably have been unwilling to give it up, and might have argued (quite logically) that Mindanao, being almost wholly Muslim at the time, fit much better with what is today Malaysia than with the Christian islands of Luzon and Visayas.

In the Treaty of Versailles, Japan was granted all of Germany’s Pacific and Asian possessions north of the equator (such as Kiau-Chow as mentioned above, Saipan, and a few other islands). On that basis, Mindanao would have been given to Japan, which could have had interesting consequences in WW2. Had Japan started the war with such a large base of operations so near Australia and so near the oil of the Dutch East Indies, the Pacific War might have been considerably complicated for the Allies.

If Japan had possessed Mindanao since the end of WW1, what would have happened to it after WW2? That's a tough one. Could it have been reunited with Luzon and the Visayas and granted independence as part of the Philippines in 1946? Perhaps, but at that point it would have been separated from the rest of the country for more than thirty years, and would be culturally even more different than it had been earlier. Would it be an independent country today? Would it perhaps have chosen to join Malaysia in the early sixties?

Bonus facts: Greenland is really three islands under the ice pack. I guess we’ll have to wait for Global Warming to melt it all in order to find out for sure. Also, the weight of the ice pack is so great that it has caused the land in the center of Greenland to sink down to 300 meters below sea level.