El Nino Odds at 90%

This report from an expat website based in Ecuador says that odds are very strong we will experience an El Nino this year and next.

El Niño is a weather phenomenon that results from higher than normal temperatures near the surface of the Pacific Ocean and causes severe flooding and drought in much of the world.

In June, the Climate Prediction Center of the U.S. National Weather Service raised the chances to 90% for an El Niño to develop during the northern hemisphere summer and early fall. Ecuador’s Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology agrees with the analysis.

Watch for the weather variations caused by El Nino being cited as proof of Global Warming.

Why Fahrenheit Is the Best System for Measuring Weather

Actually, I'm fairly neutral on the subject, but I really like this graphic. It originally appeared in Mother Jones, but I got it from Instapundit.

Phoenix Had Its First Rain Ever on June 5th

Phoenix's all-time heaviest rainfall for the fifth of June came yesterday. It wasn't much, 0.03in, but that was enough to break the previous record of 0.00in, which was set whenever they started keeping records, and tied every year since.

The National Weather Service said Friday the 0.03 inch of rain recorded at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport by 4 p.m. was the largest amount for June 5. 

Meteorologist Chris Kuhlman said that it had never officially rained in the desert city on this date. 

"So far we had not anticipated that June would be a wet month, it almost never rains in the month of June in Phoenix," Kuhlman said.

Why Would People Stay in Places Like NY and IL?

Climate probably has something to do with the migration patterns shown here ... but I don't think it's totally coincidental that Texas passed up New York a decade or so ago, and Florida will pass it this year -- and both have no personal income taxes.

On the contrary side, it's not all that simple. When I was being recruited for a job in Texas in 1988, one of the big selling points they used was the 'no income tax' bit. It wasn't a major factor in the decision to move, but it definitely sounded good. Then we got there and I found out that our property taxes in Austin, for a house of the same value, were roughly double what they had been in Phoenix.

Rain

It's raining at the moment -- really, really hard. Not a big piece of news -- it rains often, which is perhaps why they call this 'the rainy season' (though I wouldn't want to jump to conclusions). It often rains hard, too. What it doesn't do is rain long.

In Chicago (and in Phoenix, San Francisco, LA, Austin, and other places where I've lived or spent substantial amounts of time) there are occasions when a rain lasts only a short time, of course. But as often as not, it seems, if it rains, it rains for several hours, or perhaps all day. I cannot recall it ever raining all day here, and don't think it has often rained for more than an hour or so. After which, it will be even more muggy than before.

None of this is very important or insightful, I agree. Just something I was thinking about.

I'm not sure what this pic (it's looking out the front door of my apartment) is supposed to prove. If you enlarge it and look closely, you can probably see the raindrops making ripples, which shows that it is indeed raining. Alternatively, you can take my word for it.

Update: It stopped after about an hour.

Don't Believe Everything You Read

It's freezing today in Cebu -- near zero. Don't believe me? Here's proof:

-17.8C = 0.4F, by the way.

Well, OK, you caught me -- I'm lying. I suppose the equipment malfunctioned. The same page now says 32C (about 90F). Too bad, I was looking forward to playing in the snow this afternoon.

Too Darned Hot!

A favorite dance number by Ann Miller from Kiss Me, Kate.

This came to mind because the always oppressive weather conditions here are getting worse. This chart shows the monthly average for highs and lows here in Cebu City:

  

You wouldn't think a few degrees would make a difference -- the daily highs are only up about five degrees or so from January -- but with the high humidity, it really does matter. And there's another several degrees to look forward to, according to this chart, before it begins to moderate again.

I arrived in the Philippines on June 1 last year and here in Cebu at mid-month, so this is new to me. Which leads me to want to sing along with Ann Miller.